Forecasting the future is fraught with peril. It is like peering through a dark glass. You can never really tell what is there and most of your guesses will be wrong. Still, as each New Year rings in it is tempting to try and figure out what the future holds for us. Here are just a few of the stories and trends that we find interesting and will be following as January picks up steam.
Public Education
The big education story as we start 2025 will be the prospect of a $400 Million bond election. The SAISD Board of Trustees will soon take up the report of the Facility Advisory Committee and decide if a bond election will be called, what projects will be included in that bond and how big it will be. In the current climate with increased valuations, high property taxes, and calls on the legislature for property tax relief, it will be a challenge to get a bond passed, though not impossible.
San Angelo has a poor record of approving school bonds. The voters past decisions to defer renovations, improvements and new construction now will end up costing the tax payers more than ever. The voters will likely face a bond of historic proportions compared to past measures. Aging facilities, some of them close to a century old, have continued to deteriorate. This year the District lost the use of San Jacinto Elementary School completely due to damage attributed to local earthquakes caused by fracking. It is no longer safe to use. The safety and security of our children and educators continues to be a major concern, especially considering the open design of campuses like Central High School. While it and Glenn Middle School were cutting edge concepts when they were built during the Eisenhower and Johnson administrations, they are a security nightmare in the age of increasing violence, relaxed gun laws, and mass shooters.
The voters rejected a $149 Million bond that was focused on improvement in school safety and security in 2018 by only two votes. Several of the things on the last bond election are reappearing on this one. There is no doubt of the need to renovate and build new facilities. It remains to be seen whether San Angelo voters are ready to make the commitment it will take to have first class public schools.
The other big question on education is whether we will finally see some sort of school voucher system adopted in Texas. If so, what will it look like and how will it impact our children as well as our public and private schools. We tend to overlook the possibility that such a system could have a negative impact on our local private schools as well as public. A swarm of corporate private schools seeking to profit off of the legislature opening up the public purse could negatively impact many of our local schools by increased competition. So far, San Angelo has avoided IDEA and other corporate schools setting up shop in San Angelo. If they were to do so, the competition for students and dollars for Cornerstone Christian School, San Angelo Catholic School and other struggling private schools could increase exponentially. There is also the question of whether our local private schools will want the sort of government oversight and regulations that would inevitably come with public funds. It is our children and both our public and private schools that will have to bear the burden of the unforeseen or unintended consequences of this proposed massive policy change. We will be following this story closely in our The Devil is in the Details series, throughout the session.
Local Elections
The first half of 2025 will be a busy political season for San Angelo. We will be electing a new mayor and choosing city council members for SMDs 2, 4 and 6. There will also be four seats to fill on the San Angelo ISD Board of Trustees, not to mention the other school districts around the area. Candidates will soon be declaring and beginning their campaigns. What the impact of a school bond election will be on the politics of who runs for the SAISD Board of Trustees will be interesting to watch Local governments, especially SAISD has a history of uncontested races for reelection. With the potential bond election coming, we would not be surprised to see some of the incumbents challenged over the bond and property taxes, despite the fact that the Trustees have little say in running the District or control over rising property taxes. Most of the requirements the District must comply with are set by the State, and local boards are given minimal room to maneuver.
Population Trending Down
Will San Angelo’s population continue to decline in 2025? While the 2024 numbers have not yet been released yet, the numbers for 2023 showed we were still below our 2020 population level. According to the Texas Demographic Center, as of January 2024 the City’s population had declined by 323 compared to 2020. That is a .3% percent drop in population. This is an improvement over 2022 when San Angelo’s population had declined by 690, a .7% drop. The San Angelo Metropolitan Statistical Area and Tom Green County have gained over 1,000 since 2020, almost 1% growth. But San Angelo’s population growth is anemic compared to cities like Abilene which has gained 6,494 since 2020, a 5.2% increase. Midland gained 7,663 over 2020, a 5.8% increase. Odessa gained 4,449 a gain of 3.9%. A declining population level does not bode well for economic activity and growth. Despite years of effort and the investment of millions in public money, we have not grown significantly. Our population and economy remains in a sort of holding pattern. We will be watching to see if this trend continues and what its on the local economy is likely to be.
We will will continue to follow these and other stories in San Angelo as they develop over the next year. We hope you will subscribe to our email list to receive our weekly e-zine edition Thank you for reading, following and supporting this new effort to bring important and valuable local news stories to San Angelo.
