Analysis & Commentary
It is rare that a Democratic Primary in Texas matters in the modern political landscape.
The last time a Democrat was elected to state-wide office was in 1994, and those officials ended their terms in 1999. There has been no significant threat to Republican control of any statewide office since.
My daughter was born in 1994, and she is now a mother herself.
A whole generation has passed and another has begun. Those generations have no memory of a state-wide Democratic official.
During this era, Democratic primary elections have been lackluster affairs. More often than not, it’s one of the usual suspects taking turns being the sacrificial lamb just so voters can have someone with a “D” behind their name on the ballot to choose from.
A Whole New Ballgame?
But 2026 is shaping up to be something different altogether.
According to the latest polls Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn by 5 to 8 percentage points.
Cornyn is trying hard to fit his Eisenhower/Reagan Republican form into a MAGA mold. Whether he will succeed is much in doubt.
His only hope is to win Trump’s endorsement — even then he may only escape by the skin of his teeth.
If John Cornyn wins the nomination, I expect a likely victory for him in the general election, regardless of who the Democratic nominee will be.
I doubt very much that Texans will throw out a four-term incumbent Republican, unless they have a very good reason.
However, Ken Paxton could be that very good reason.
If Paxton is triumphant, the race for the Democratic nomination for Senate will really matter, and the Democrats must put up their best and brightest to defeat Paxton.
Texas’ Most Corrupt Politican
Paxton is arguably the most corrupt Texas politician since Jim Ferguson.
Ferguson was the Governor from 1915-1917. He was infamous for selling pardons from the Governor’s Mansion to the highest bidder.
He got so rich off of being Governor, it was not enough that he was impeached and thrown out of office.
The legislature created what we know today as the Board of Pardons and Paroles to make sure no other Governor could do that ever again.
By contrast, the list of Paxton’s alleged crimes is staggering, and I do not have time to go into all of them in detail here.
Mentioning a few will suffice.
Paxton has been indicted on more than one occasion for securities violations. The federal charges against him were dismissed by the DOJ on Trump’s instructions last April.
Then there was his impeachment in the Texas Senate for a laundry list of crimes. Millions of dollars were spent getting Dan Patrick and others to tip the scales of justice in Paxton’s favor. Even then it took an all-important personal phone call from Donald Trump himself to force senators into acquitting him.
Since then, Paxton has not learned his lesson, and his streak of hits continues.
He admitted to retaliating against employees who opposed his crimes and refused to cover them up. Now he is in a scandalous divorce where he is trying desperately to keep all his financial records and correspondence sealed in a public proceeding
I would not have given Paxton a snowball’s chance of defeating Cornyn if we were living in any other time than this one.
Which brings us to the Democratic Primary for Senate.
The Opposition In November Will Matter
There are five candidates who have announced their intention for run in the Democratic Primary. Colin Allred, James Talarico, and Terry Virts are the top three contenders. But realistically the race is between Colin Allred, who lost to Ted Cruz for Senate in the 2024 election, and State Rep. James Talarico.
The Rising Star
According to the Texas Tribune, last week Talarico set a new fundraising record raising $6.2 million in three weeks to end the first quarter reporting period. Allred was a distant second raising $4.1 million.
Talarico not only set a record for Democrats. He broke the record for the first three months for any campaign in Texas history.
The Tribune reported that Talarico’s donations came from more than 125,000 individual contributors across more than 230 Texas counties and all 50 states, according to his campaign. Almost every contribution — 98% — was for $100 or less, with teachers making up the largest share of donors.
Fundraising like that is a very good sign of a broad base of support for any candidate.
Talarico is a rising star in the firmament of Texas politics. He speaks with an authentic voice that resonates with a majority of Texans. He brings the prospect of normalcy, compassion and respect to Texas politics. Most of all the seminarian shows no sign of corruption. And that will be important in November 2026
The Also Ran
Colin Allred already ran for Senate and lost.
He ran a nationalized campaign that ignored most of Texas and never visited San Angelo, or other vast swaths of Texas, at all.
He didn’t hold rallies or public appearances and declined to attend a rural debate, which every other U.S. Senate primary candidate attended.
He apparently believed that small events with big-dollar donors and gala fundraisers was the way to get elected.
He completely ignored rural Texas, focusing only on the four major metropolitan areas, and rural Texas voters rewarded him appropriately — by re-electing one of the most unpopular Senators in Texas history.
If Democrats are to elect a state-wide candidate ever again, they have to prove to people that every corner of — and every voter in — Texas matters.
The way you do that is by showing up, which is one of the most important part of politics — and one many Democratic politicians seem to have forgotten.
Allred has never made a primary or general-election campaign appearance in San Angelo.
James Talarico will be here for his second visit at 6 p.m. Thursday in the San Angelo Performing Arts Center.
Democrats Should Move On
Colin Allred had his shot.
He should step aside and throw all his support behind James Talarico.
In this political climate, with the current state of the Republican Party, I think it is highly likely Trump will endorse Ken Paxton, and he will win the Republican nomination.
It will take everything Talarico and the Democrats have to defeat Ken Paxton.
Allred is not the man for this mission. The Senate election in 2026 will be a choice between corruption and good government.
Here is to hoping good government prevails.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Concho Observer its writers or staff.
