AUSTIN — The nation’s two most populous states — California and Texas — grappling for political advantage in advance of 2026 elections, could reorder the balance of power in Washington and threaten President Donald Trump’s agenda at the midpoint of his second term.
Texas Democrats on Monday prevented their state’s House of Representatives from moving forward, at least for now, with a redrawn congressional map sought by Trump to shore up Republicans’ 2026 midterm prospects as his political standing falters.
In California, Democrats encouraged by Gov. Gavin Newsom are considering new political maps that could slash five Republican-held House seats in the liberal-leaning state while bolstering Democratic incumbents in other battleground districts. The move is intended to undercut any GOP gains in Texas, potentially swinging House control and giving Democrats a counterweight to Trump on Capitol Hill.
A draft plan aims to boost the Democratic margin in California to 48 of 52 congressional seats, according to a source familiar with the plan who was not authorized to discuss it publicly. That’s up from the 43 seats the party now holds. It would need approval from lawmakers and voters, who may be skeptical to give it after handing redistricting power to an independent commission years ago.
The rivalry puts a spotlight on two states that for years have dueled over jobs, innovation, prestige — even sports — with the backdrop of clashing political visions — one progressive, one conservative.
A standoff in Texas after Democrats leave the state
After dozens of Democrats left Texas, the Republican-dominated House was unable to establish the quorum of lawmakers required to do business. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has made threats about removing members who are absent from their seats. Democrats counter that Abbott is using “smoke and mirrors” to assert legal authority he does not have.
The House quickly issued civil arrest warrants for absent Democrats and Abbott ordered state troopers to help find and arrest them, but lawmakers physically outside Texas are beyond the jurisdiction of state authorities.
“If you continue to go down this road, there will be consequences,” House Speaker Rep. Dustin Burrows said from the chamber floor, later telling reporters that includes fines.
Democrats’ revolt and Abbott’s threats intensified a fight over congressional maps that began in Texas but now includes Democratic governors who have pitched redrawing their district maps in retaliation — even if their options are limited. The dispute also reflects Trump’s aggressive view of presidential power and his grip on the Republican Party nationally, while testing the long-standing balance of powers between the federal government and individual states.
The impasse centers on Trump’s effort to get five more GOP-leaning congressional seats in Texas, at Democrats’ expense, before the midterms. That would bolster his party’s chances of preserving its fragile U.S. House majority, something Republicans were unable to do in the 2018 midterms during Trump’s first presidency. Republicans currently hold 25 of Texas’ 38 seats. That’s nearly a 2-to-1 advantage and already a wider partisan gap than the 2024 presidential results: Trump won 56.1% of Texas ballots, while Democrat Kamala Harris received 42.5%.
The California pushback: A move to undercut GOP House members
According to the tentative California proposal, districts now held by Republican Reps. Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao and Doug LaMalfa would see right-leaning voters shaved and Democratic voters boosted in a shift that would make it likely a left-leaning candidate would prevail in each race.
In battleground districts held by Democratic Reps. Dave Min, Mike Levin and Derek Tran, the party’s edge would be boosted to strengthen their hold on the seats, the source said.
Democratic members of California’s congressional delegation were briefed on the new map on Monday, according to a person familiar with the meeting who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.
The proposal is being circulated at the same time that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has said he wants to advance partisan redistricting. He says he won’t move ahead if Texas pauses its efforts.
Newsom said he’d call a special election for the first week of November. Voters would weigh a new congressional map drawn by the Democratic-controlled Legislature.
“California will not sit by idly and watch this democracy waste away,” Newsom said Monday.
More than 1,800 miles (2,900 kilometers) from Austin, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul appeared with Texas Democrats and argued their cause is national.
“We’re not going to tolerate our democracy being stolen in a modern-day stagecoach heist by a bunch of law-breaking cowboys,” Hochul said Monday. “If Republicans are willing to rewrite rules to give themselves an advantage, then they’re leaving us with no choice: We must do the same. You have to fight fire with fire.”
Status of the vote
In Texas, legislators who left the state declined to say how long they’ll hold out.
“We recognized when we got on the plane that we’re in this for the long haul,” said Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer while in Illinois.
Texas House Democratic Caucus leader Gene Wu said members “will do whatever it takes” but added, “What that looks like, we don’t know.”
Legislative walkouts often only delay passage of a bill, like in 2021, when many Democrats left Texas for 38 days to protest proposed voting restrictions. Once they returned, Republicans passed that measure.
Lawmakers cannot pass bills in the 150-member House without two-thirds of members present. Democrats hold 62 seats in the majority-Republican chamber, and at least 51 left the state, according to a Democratic aide.
The Texas Supreme Court held in 2021 that House leaders could “physically compel the attendance” of missing members, but no Democrats were forcibly brought back to the state after warrants were served. Republicans answered by adopting $500 daily fines for lawmakers who don’t show.
Abbott, meanwhile, continues to make unsubstantiated claims that some lawmakers have committed felonies by soliciting money to pay for potential fines for leaving Texas during the session.
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Barrow reported from Atlanta. Blood reported from Los Angeles. Associated Press writers Joey Cappelletti in Washington, John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas, and Andrew DeMillo in Little Rock, Arkansas, also contributed to this report.
